Western countries seem to be shy in the face of the tragedy. During discussion with their main partners particularly Belgium the US many times brought up in recent months the issue of Eastern Zaïre.
One document from the Pentagon, Department of Defense could not be more explicit on the american analysis of the situation. The military take a clear upperhand on the african policy of the US government. In this context, their point of view on Zaïre is quite relaying. Zaïre remains of major concern to the Pentagon which would like to control any negative trend (derive) which would jeopardise american interests and the development of key countries in the region. Uganda Burundi and Rwanda are important in this connection in the eyes of the US military as an integral parts in the safety belt established to contain islamic fundamentalism. Rwanda with its good roads and airport that can handle big aircrafts can constitute a base for operations in the inferior of Africa and towards the indian ocean. Congo and Angola are also among the priorities of the US given the substantial american investments in these countries.
Having said, the analysis on Zaïre is quite interesting. The Pentagon, according to the document, no longer believes in the existence of the State of Zaïre within three years to come. No politician will be able to grantee the unity of Zaïre and succeed an economic recovery programme. For american experts three scenarios are possible for Zaïre.
Let us recall that the document dates back to many months which makes the pertinence of the document the more disturbing. The first scenario : autarkical drift which envisages that provinces would have better economic and political relations with neighbouring countries than with the confederal central government. The scenario foresees that provinces like KASAI or SHABA would secede with the connivance of "neighbouring" states. The consequence of this situation would be the dislocation of the central government.
The second scenario is (unfortunately) chosen to what is happening no : "the situation in Eastern Zaïre and relations between Rwanda and Burundi on one side and Zaïre on the other deteriorate. the hutu-tutsi conflict extends out of national borders and a regional war breaks out in which case policy the zairean Army ill equipped, ill trained and paid fails to defend the integrity of the national territory. the losses of territory become real.
The three tutsi armies(Uganda-Rwanda and Burundi) should in such a conflict take the upper hand. Such a regional war would encourage then other regions to secede. But it is clear that the barons will try to fight back. then that we shall have an implosion of Zaïre with war spots all over the country Zaïre would simply cease to exist the documents.
The third scenario is finally that of break up reduction which envisages" the return of former rebel forces, encouraged by zairean politicians who feel that they will not get to power. Zaïre would be subjected to classical guerilla attacks in its rich provinces which would become independent. Zaïre would then lose its configuration and would lose its central role in the region.
For the pentagon, the future of Zaïre is to say the least chaotic : either it become a big Liberia or it explodes and two or three of its provinces become independent.
In the face of such considerations, one should say that it was possible to avoid that catastrophe. Unfortunately it is not easy to see how to get out of it now. the international community should take the initiative. Nevertheless the regional summit which is to be held in NAIROBI to day will not bring together all the protagonists. Zaïre will be absent while Rwanda will be represented by a minister.
france on its part pleads for a rapid intervention military force under the UN, which would permit the supply of humanitarian aid. France and spain are ready to participate in an operations aimed at restoring security in north and south Kivu according to a spokesman of ELYSEE. It is understood that such an operation would have to be decided upon by the Security Council. the presidents of france Jacques Chirac and of Spain..... who met yesterday wa... the Security council to meet urgently.
The US on their part announced yesterday that they had sent an official of the State Department, Mr BOGOSIAN. With regard to Belgium, its Minister of Foreign Affairs Eric Derycke impressed upon the rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Anastase GASANA the absolute necessity to respect the territorial integrity of Zaïre.
In the meantime things are not well at the war front. The zairean rebellion has decided unilaterally a three week ceasefire but nothing shows that it will be respected by rwandan and zairean armies. The latter has expressed its dissatisfaction over the weekend. The chief of the zairean Armed Forces General ELUKI has accused the government in KINSHASA for having done nothing in the way of providing to the Armed Forces the necessary means to fight the war. This declaration could imply that the Army will not support for long. Prime Minister KENGO WA DONDO. It is said that an agreement between the presidential camp, sympathetic to the Army and the leader of the latter would replace KENGO wa DONDO. His popular support possible to appease people whereas one million people in Eastern Zaïre or GOMA who needed assistance had been abandoned by humanitarian agencies.
The replacement of KENGO seems to be implied by the World Bank. the latter declared over the week and that it would not resume normal relations until a stable government was in place. the following hours could be crucial for the government of KENGO.
At he same time, the fact that MOBUTU left Switzerland yesterday afternoon to his villa at Côte d'Azur could have a strategic importance. Swiss authorities had requested President MOBUTU to observe silence during his stay. It will not be probably the same in France where he will could meet chirac French troops based in Central Africa could become operational quickly.
D.Gr